What will happen to post-Ukraine War Russia?
Thoughts on pre-conditions that led to the rise of fascism in Germany in the 1920s
It may feel a little premature to ask the question of what happens to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, but one way or another, the war will be over, and there will be consequences for Russia. One tweet related to the subject caught my attention:
For some reason - probably because of other parallels between early 20th century and early 21st century - this got me thinking about Germany post-World War I.
Germany was in bad shape. Inflation was out of control; the Treaty of Versailles was seen as a humiliation on many levels - Germany lost colonies and territories that were previously part of its empire; its military was decimated; its trading capabilities were significantly reduced; heavy reparations were damaging to the economy; unemployment was extreme, and even though it came late in the decade, the financial crash of 1929 further drove the economy into the ground; the “honor clause” allowed Allies to try individual Germans - including the emperor - as war criminals. That’s not a complete list.
These post-WWI conditions in Germany allowed Hitler and his allies to exploit national feelings of humiliation and oppression to champion the extreme nationalist views.
I can see similar narratives playing out in post-Ukraine War Russia. While the modern consequences of the Ukraine War may not be as pervasive or punitive as the Treaty of Versailles, the conditions they create will likely be similar.
Russian economy is in a downturn already, and that’s just 6 months after the start of the war, with minimal sanctions. This will not improve, especially if there’s additional economic consequences imposed by the world and with Europe moving away from Russian gas.
The international community is isolating Russia, with a few expected exceptions in China, Iran, and India, all of which need its natural resources and are capitalizing on Russia’s need for war funding. Being an outcast encourages extremism.
Russian war crimes in Ukraine will need to be examined and punished. What form that will take is unknown, but it will have repercussions one way or another. Either denial or shame will further damage the psyche.
Putin’s government will undergo internal upheavals, driven either by natural events or political catalysts, creating opportunities for power struggle and exploitation.
There’s already internal trouble, with some Russians buying into the propaganda and supporting the “special operation”, and others strongly opposed (and suppressed by the government). Modern communication and its ability to create virtual bubbles and echo chambers will amplify the effects, further driving polarization.
The military will be demoralized and looking to restore its identity and prestige.
All the above conditions seem to me to be markers for rapid rise of fascism, same as what happened in Germany post-WWI. There are differences, and the differences are discouraging, rather than encouraging.
First, post-WWI, Germany was the most democratic country on the planet. Russia is not. It took Hitler a decade to rise from a mouthy nobody to chancellor, primarily because he had to work slowly and subvert existing democratic practices while building up his power base. Russia does not have a functioning democracy. A powerful demagogue in league with existing autocratic bureaucracy, supported by oligarchs, the military, and other nascent world fascists could take over in a tiny fraction of that time.
Second, unlike Germany in the 1920s, Russia still has significant economic and political power and presence that it can leverage to support the new fascist government.
Third, its military power, while diminished, will not disappear. And it has nukes.
Fourth, it has allies who are interested in global discord for their own gains - China and Iran, again, come to mind, as well as the new American Fascists.
***
The prognosis overall is not great. The options available for handling Russia after the Ukraine War are not great either; perhaps the best we can do is try to avoid creating conditions that led to the rise of fascism in Germany, and hope that other options become available.
For the record, all of this is not to say that Russia should avoid consequences for this tragic, unforgivable, abhorrent invasion of Ukraine. There must be consequences. I am simply saying that if we do not take this opportunity to learn from our very recent history, we do not have to imagine the possible outcomes - we can simply read about them in history books, see them in photos and videos we can easily access, and hear about them from still-living witnesses.
I think there's almost no chance of a Versailles like outcome, unless it's a matter of the world banding together and keeping almost all of their off-shored money from returning. Oh well, never believe you know for sure what will happen.
My impression is that Russia is hardly even a state, let along a democracy. I get the impression that Putin's big assassinations were carried out by pick-up teams. No paperwork, no receipts. Its institutional ineptitude against Ukraine shows this over and over, and the fact that the Wagner Group is off doing its own thing, maybe trying to make Prigozhin a hero. They've gone back to 18th century ways of impressing soldiers. For a people so well educated, before it all fell apart, it's pitiful that they have to base their economy almost solely on hydrocarbon extraction.
Everybody should watch Ryazan Sugar or the Assassination of Russia and see what a bunch of ordinary Russians could be like in 2000, being interviewed in a TV studio before the country was beaten down by 20 years of Putinism, when the KGB (or whatever -- too many initials) was caught trying to blow up their building - a fuck-up in the very operation that put Putin in power. Maybe the diaspora can do something like what the Irish diaspora did for their country.
It seems like time for this event to be totally accepted as fact, or at least by far the most plausible explanation. I think it might just tip things over.